ESPN Randomized Lottery Study
On ESPN, you can “play the NBA draft lottery.” With the click of a button, ESPN randomly picks the top three picks, with each team having the same chance they will have in the NBA draft. Then, after the draft order has been selected, ESPN makes a guess on who each team will draft in that draft slot.
I conducted 25 such randomized mock drafts on ESPN.com, and came up with the following statistics:
The number one pick goes to …
Charlotte - 24 percent
Atlanta - 20 percent
Utah - 16 percent
New Orleans - 16 percent
Portland - 12 percent
New York - 8 percent
Toronto - 4 percent
Charlotte, by netting 24 percent of the top picks with a 17.7 percent chance, had a net gain of +6.3 percent. The Jazz, meanwhile, had a net gain of 4.1 percent. Atlanta, however, had a net loss of 5 percent.
So who was the No. 1 pick in these 25 mock drafts …
Andrew Bogut - 60 percent
Chris Paul - 24 percent
Marvin Williams - 16 percent
Paul was Charlotte’s top pick each time it won the draft, and Marvin Williams was the Hornets’ selection each time New Orleans had the top spot. All other teams used the No. 1 pick to select Andrew Bogut.
As for the Jazz, this is where they drafted …
Top pick - 16 percent
2nd pick - 12 percent
3rd pick - 16 percent
4th pick - 0 percent
5th pick - 36 percent
6th pick - 20 percent
7th pick - 0 percent
The Jazz can finish 1 through 7. To be fourth, the three teams ahead of them all have to get one of the top three picks; not very likely as you can see. To be seventh, the three teams ahead of them all have to fail to get a lottery pick, a virtual impossibility.
So that really leaves the Jazz with this: a top three pick or the fifth or sixth spot. It’s more likely that the Jazz don’t get in the top three, at a rate of 56 percent. Still, according to this randomized study, there’s a 44 percent chance that the Jazz do get a top three pick.
So who did the Jazz draft in these randomized drafts …
Deron Williams - 52 percent
Andrew Bogut - 20 percent
Marvin Williams - 12 percent
Chris Paul - 8 percent
Fran Vasquez - 4 percent
When the Jazz had the top pick, they selected Andrew Bogut each time.
When the Jazz had the second pick, they selected Chris Paul twice, and Andrew Bogut once (the Bobcats had made Paul the top pick in that scenario).
When the Jazz had the third pick, they selected Marvin Williams three times and Andrew Bogut once (the Bobcats made Paul the top selection, and the Hornets then selected Marvin Williams).
All nine times the Jazz had the fifth pick, they selected Deron Williams. And only once with the sixth pick did they not select Deron Williams. That time, he was off the board, and they selected Fran Vasquez.
So if ESPN is to be believed, we can conclude this …
- Andrew Bogut will be the top pick, unless Charlotte or New Orleans win the lottery.
- If the Jazz win, they will take Bogut.
- If the Jazz get the second slot, they will take Chris Paul.
- If the Jazz get the third pick, they’ll get Marvin Williams.
- If the Jazz aren’t in the top three, they’ll take Deron Williams.
So based on my study, this is how I predict the NBA draft will turn out:
1. Chris Paul – Charlotte
2. Andrew Bogut -- Atlanta
3. Marvin Williams – Portland
4. Gerald Green – New Orleans
5. Deron Williams – Utah
